Piran: As the economy continues to rebound, we expect a renewed interest from companies and institutions to invest in video and security technologies. Certainly, many companies are realizing that the economic justification is there for video and security systems to protect critical assets. Adoption of IP-based technology solutions will accelerate in 2010, fueled in part by advances in investigative functionality.
Taylor: The improving economy certainly suggests that IP video will continue to grow and most likely will exceed 2009 growth rates. In addition to a better market outlook, the benefits of networked video are becoming better known among integrators and especially end-users, whose buying decisions are increasingly influenced by IT professionals inside their organizations. Also paving the way for broader market growth is development of standards by the Open Network Video Interface Forum (ONVIF) and the Physical Security Interoperability Alliance (PSIA). Among other advantages, standardization can help to simplify installation of IP-based systems.
Lazatin: We expect that 2010 growth rates will be similar to 2009. Success in key sectors such as government will depend on how quickly stimulus funds funnel to government-funded projects. If the economic situation persists, opportunities in retail, banking and key segments in the private sectors will continue to be scarce.
Wachman: We expect to see continued migration from analog to IP-based video over the next few years. Further, we expect there will be a growing trend in the number of customers that purchase end-to-end IP solutions to help ensure optimal system interoperability and lower integration costs.
Gorovici: In addition to the economy improving slowly but surely, the launch of new products and innovation shows overall confidence in the market. We have seen availability of more funds made available for security projects, and the landslide of recent security breaches and events all lend itself to a much-improved 2010.
Next Page: The death of analog video?
Have the rumors of the death of analog video been highly exaggerated?
Robinson: Yes, the rumors are a bit exaggerated. At this point in time, we're not going to see the complete death of analog video anytime soon. While IP-based systems are growing in prevalence as viable video options, it's still difficult for many organizations to rationalize and navigate a complete switch from analog to IP given factors such as tight budgets, unsettled industry standards and increased scrutiny on new expenditures. Analog is also still very much a relevant factor in the IP migration equation due to the use of hybrid solutions, which incorporate both IP and analog-based technology. We're seeing a number of companies adopting hybrid strategies and further proving that analog is not dead yet.
Fullerton: We've always known that analog would live on for a long time, like the typewriter continued to live for years after the PC was introduced. It is expected that the technology is a sunset industry, but there are installed bases with cycles that are 12-15 years long that will continue for that reason.
Lazatin: Although there was demonstrable slowdown in sales of analog video in 2009, end-users can realize cost advantages to installing analog based systems. This trend is more prevalent in small- to medium-sized surveillance applications, in segments such as retail, restaurants, houses of worship, etc. The decline of analog video and the growth of IP video will be slower than predicted.
Johnston: While the rate of change from analog to IP video is certainly increasing, 2010 will not be the year that IP sales exceed those of analog systems. Many customers, such as large retailers with thousands of stores, have significant investments in analog technology. The owner of a delicatessen or pizzeria isn't likely to prefer an IP system to an analog system, but it's likely that cost will factor highly in the sale.
Piran: Analog video systems are still alive and will generally remain in place until upgrades are required, but they are facing a slow death. IP-based video systems are the superior technology, although there may continue to be installations for which analog systems are "good enough," and can be integrated onto a networked platform to some degree.