Barnes has recorded what happens to alarm and alarm monitoring companies when the economy rises and falls and heâ€™s measured the impact that this has on their actual profitability throughout these years. Heâ€™s been able to show that historically speaking the RMR business remains reasonably stable in tougher times. This does not mean recession proof. But his data gives the banking industry some sense of what to anticipate in slowed times.
At the event you could see closed door meetings and hushed conversation among buyers and bankersâ€¦along with bold stories of large sums of money that was recently secured--as recently as the last few months and weeks. There were smiling faces, public thank youâ€™s to lenders for sums provided and a general positive attitude, no excitement for what was happening in the market. The tenor felt was as palpable as the events of the last so many high growth years. This does not mean to imply that cash flows freely or easily but for solid, profitable companies in the RMR business there was/is money to be had.
Bill Polk, Managing Director of CapitalSource, a lending institution in the security industry, gave the most articulate explanation of the banking situation in the U.S. today, of any Iâ€™ve heard to dateâ€¦and who of us has not heard a thousand of these by now. Bill admits that we, the U.S., are in uncharted waters and no one can say for sure what will happen. Heâ€™s not convinced that we have hit the bottom, as more layoffs are expected and these impact the alarm industry as shuttered businesses mean less monitoring and residential customers without jobs may not prioritize or be able to pay for their alarms.
Polk thinks, as others do, that there are markets that will remain more viable than others such as healthcare, transportation, petrochemical, education and government systems including police, towns, municipalities and or industries who serve the masses. I myself might throw in pharmaceuticals, grocery stores, food manufacturers and their supply chains, warehouses, liquor store and cigarettes companies. I am sure you too can come up with a few. Polk points out that when the economy goes down, crime goes upâ€¦and this is where we come in. John Murphy, President of Vector Security, a long established retail security solutions provider noted that retailerâ€™s loss increases in these times and their assets are all they have.
Barnes, nor Polk nor anyone at the event was ready to hang their hat on what to expect for security revenues in the coming year. Itâ€™s been a tradition for Barnes to make predictions and to see how close he would come when he rolled out the numbers in the following year. He was truly hesitant to say what he thought this year. He vacillated wanting to say flat then mumbled perhaps a little bit down, but you could see that he was not pessimistic like the national media. Nor was he trying to be unrealistic. If you put all of this in perspective, the security industry grew significantly last year and it was estimated to be about $48.5 billion in revenue. If we stayed flat, or even dipped a little, this would likely not even take us back to the operating numbers of â€™07.
In summary what I see here is that who is up, down or flat has a lot to do with how you organize your business, your operations, your sales, service and RMR if you have it. The proper and accurate tracking of your cost of operations, profits and losses is the key to success in any economy but right now more so than ever. Isnâ€™t this the exactly the issue that we hear about all day everyday in the national media and is the true problem behind all of this economic trouble. If you are counting whatâ€™s real from the beginning, then a slowdown is just a slowdown. If you have been doing some fuzzy math, then you have to count your losses and your bad accounting system. If you have been counting correctly from day one, you are just not in as much trouble as those who have been manipulating their numbers.