Celent Communications forecasts at least a seven-year wait for smart cards to make a significant dent in the United States payment card market. Celent analyst Ariana-Michelle Moore writes in a recent report that there are many factors influencing the timing and strength of adoption. These include the possibility of fraud increasing in the U.S. as countries in Europe and elsewhere adopt more secure smart cards, and the likely decline in the price of smart card chips as sales increase. Moore says a point should come, assuming applications for smart cards are kept simple, at which banks can affordably adopt smart cards. Celent is based in Boston.