According to a research note released this week by IHS, mechanical locks are expected to remain a significant part of the security industry moving forward as they are expected to see a positive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8 percent from 2013 to 2017.
Although the proliferation of access control systems has helped increase the penetration rate of electronic locking devices, IHS Market Research Analyst Adi Pavlovic said that the majority of applications still require a mechanical lock override to account for power failures or system errors.
“Consequently, the trend towards more access control systems only limits the growth of mechanical locks in the medium-term; it does not necessarily replace them,” Pavlovic said in a statement. “Additionally, for many end users, the cost of an online electronic access control solution remains cost prohibitive, so these end users must continue to rely on mechanical solutions.”
Despite the high costs, however, many end users still value the benefits provided by an access control system such as being able to monitor door status in real-time, create audit trails and the ability to lockdown all doors in case of an emergency. Subsequently, Pavlovic said that electronic access control solutions are still forecast to have stronger growth rates than mechanical locks during the aforementioned time period, both in terms of revenues and units.
In addition, Pavlovic said Chinese suppliers of mechanical locks are beginning to have an increased presence in international markets, which is driving the average sales price (ASP) of these devices downward. In fact, the ASP for mechanical locks globally is expected to decline 0.6 percent from 2013 to 2017.
“Overall, the mechanical locks market is slated for positive growth in the medium-term, with strong construction activity in emerging markets and the BRIC countries continuing to drive demand for mechanical locking solutions. However, more mature market such as the U.S. and Europe, will see more of an impact by electronic access control systems, but cannibalization should be minimal in the medium term,” concluded Pavlovic.