I realize every writer, pundit, and former journalism major is cranking out articles on the impact of the pandemic on our industry. Not to be outdone by my betters, I will also jump on the Covid-19 bandwagon, but hopefully, bring you a fresh perspective. That perspective is of the growing realization our world will forever be different. This view isn’t coming from fear, but from the burgeoning knowledge, we will not be returning to business as usual – likely ever.
The pandemic shouldn’t have been such a surprise. Even a cursory review of history reveals a timeline punctuated with pandemics and health crises affecting large swaths of humanity. In our hubris, we came to believe our modern society would be immune to such global-scale events. Yet, here we are.
Our pandemic response should have been one we as security professionals know well: prudent, data-driven risk management. Yet we are reminded once more – when it comes to risks – we are always at the mercy of our human emotions. In this age of large scale computing power, we should have all the information we need at our fingertips. Instead, citizens get most of the needed information filtered through a mass media complex more interested in pushing memes and narratives than considered and thoughtful research. It should be no surprise people will react emotionally instead of more rationally.
In a similar vein, politicians and government leaders have now mandated their way into a tight corner. As scientists and microbiologists rush to develop treatments and a possible vaccine, the public square is being dominated by “lockdowns,” mask mandates, and social distancing. There is nothing more for your governor or mayor to do until medical advances and nature begin to make the virus abate. If you know anything about a coronavirus, you will know it is now part of our environment and is here to stay. Forever. Like the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-20, Covid-19 will race through the global population and sadly claim many, many lives in spite of our best efforts to delay and isolate its effects.
The government’s reliance on lockdowns and masks may delay the spread, but eradication isn’t even in the cards. I am reminded of the old saying that when your only tool is a hammer, all your problems suddenly look like nails. When you hear a politician claim we will “crush” or eliminate the virus, you know it is not prudent risk management but an emotional appeal with no basis in reality. I even heard one say they wouldn’t relax their mandates until there are zero Covid deaths. You need to wonder if they actually believe what they say.
How do we see this affecting our industry? For starters, I think it is safe to predict companies will finally seriously adopt remote work for employees. Commercial real estate and hangar-sized cubicle farms will see a dramatic decrease. Casual and frequent business travel is now a thing we will ascribe to “The Before Time”. Large conferences and corporate events at hotels and meeting venues will be replaced by more online activities. This will have a negative ripple effect on all those support businesses such as hotels, airlines, catering, cleaning services, and many others. Heck, I feel really bad for my dry cleaner. He hasn’t seen me in months.
I am not going to imply this is all gloom and doom It is just changing. That change will be very hard on many of us. We likely know someone whose life was claimed by the pandemic. Prudent risk management demands we look at our environment rationally and make the best choices given the data. That data is telling me we cannot return to the way it was. Adaptation is the only option.
