Some believe passage of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the formal name of the Iran nuclear deal, could lead to a gradual thawing in diplomatic relations between the West and Iran. Only time will tell if fruitful diplomatic ties can be reestablished, but if they are, corporate security and risk managers at global companies will need to be prepared.
Since it was first announced in July, the deal reached between Iran and negotiators from the United States and others from the international community to put an end to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear aspirations has been a political hot button. Republicans and even some Democrats have come out in fierce opposition to the deal, saying it would do little to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. However, President Obama has warned if Congress fails to pass the deal next month when it is expected to come up for debate, that the consequences for the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East will be severe.
“Congressional rejection of this deal leaves any U.S. administration that is absolutely committed to preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon with one option -- another war in the Middle East,” the president said in remarks at American University in Washington, D.C. earlier this month.
Although the country has essentially been closed to Western companies for decades, an analyst with risk management services firm iJET, who agreed to speak with SIW on the condition of anonymity, said if the deal is adopted and agreed to by all parties that it could pave the way for multinational corporations to come in and do business. But opening an office or sending personnel to Iran is something that would still be fraught with numerous security concerns for businesses, according the analyst, who added that a lot of “security infrastructure” would have to be created for that to occur.
Essentially, security assessments will have to have to be conducted on Tehran and other areas of the country. Hotels and any personnel hired on the ground, such as drivers, will also have to be thoroughly vetted. Most importantly, organizations will need to hire “local fixers,” who can help diffuse potentially volatile situations between locals and company personnel.
While each organization may operate in a different way from a security standpoint, the analyst said some organizations may already have a small footprint in Iran and can probably hit the ground the running more quickly than those who are completely unfamiliar with it. Regardless of whether they have assets already in the country or not, organizations looking to do business in Iran or elsewhere in the region, for that matter, need to have contingency plans in place to account for worst-case scenarios. In a way, however, establishing operations in Iran would enable businesses to mitigate their risks in other areas of the region.
“In terms of organizations that already have operations in the Middle East or Central Asia, expansion into Iran would really only present more opportunities for them to do things, such as diversify their logistics, their supply chain, etc.,” said the analyst. “If something happens regarding their supply lines in Dubai, then an Iranian port could pick up the slack while they are working to get things restored there.”
The analyst said gradual normalization of relations between the U.S. and Iran would also enable the two sides to address their shared security interests in the region, particularly with regard to the threats posed by ISIS and resolving the Syrian conflict.
“Granted, the West and Iran have different strategic objectives, but we do have shared commonality of interests. Being able to fall back on a diplomatic relationship will help navigate the gaps in between those things,” the analyst said.
On the other hand, if the deal falls through and rhetoric on the part of the U.S. or Iran becomes more heated, the analyst believes it could result in not only increased regional tensions, but perhaps even an outright war, which the president alluded to. There is definitely risk of a proxy sectarian war between Iran and some of the U.S.’ allies in the Persian Gulf, according to the analyst. In fact, some have already called the ongoing conflict in Yemen a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Despite the cantankerous rhetoric coming from leaders of both the U.S. and Iran regarding the deal, there have been some optimistic signs that normalized diplomatic relations could become a reality at some point in the future. Just yesterday, UK officials announced plans to reopen the British embassy in Tehran. The embassy was closed four years ago after it was stormed by protesters opposing new sanctions leveled against the country by Britain at the time.