Live from ESX 2026: ESA Launches Industry Research Initiative

DALLAS – The Electronic Security Association (ESA) today during the Electronic Security Expo (ESX) has announced the launch of the ESA Industry Research Center, a new initiative designed to deliver economic intelligence to integrators and alarm dealers.

At the center of the effort is a new composite scoring tool, dubbed the ESA Industry Performance Index (IPI). It is slated to debut in August 2026.

The index will measure industry health across four dimensions: business activity and market growth, workforce capacity and pressure, revenue and business model health, and technology and AI adoption. Each will feed into a single 0-100 composite score intended to reflect the overall health and trajectory of the sector.

The effort is backed by Beacon Economics, a California-based macroeconomic forecasting firm, and will be led by Beacon founding partner Christopher Thornberg, PhD, who holds the title of ESA Chief Economist.

What It Is and What It Isn't

For integrators trying to make sense of what this means for their businesses, Kirk MacDowell, a member of the ESA board of directors, longtime industry advocate, and owner of MacGuard Security Advisors, offered some useful framing in an interview at ESX 2026.

"No one is going to make any decision based upon one data point," MacDowell said. "But what they are going to do is use this as a catalyst to make sure that other things that they're being told really matches where the industry is."

That's an important distinction. The IPI, MacDowell said, is a benchmarking and validation resource and should not be seen as a decision-making tool on its own. He compared its potential value to what he sees in his own consulting work. "There are certain times where a large integrator CEO will hire me and our meetings will be on weekends," he said. "They will say, ‘Kirk, these are the reports I'm getting internally…what's your read on this?’ They want to make sure that they are getting factual information from outside sources."

Is it Relevant to Smaller Dealers?

The four pillars of the IPI – M&A activity, RMR trends, AI adoption, and workforce pressures – will read to many smaller alarm dealers as enterprise-level concerns; however, MacDowell pushed back on that characterization. "They are totally alarm dealer concerns," he said. "Small companies could transform into large companies and you need to be able to figure out how to do that. You can't always do that on your own."

He added that integrators of any size might find value in tracking specific dimensions of the index rather than the composite score. "I may focus on one of those pillars and say, ‘I'm really interested in RMR, and are we really seeing a spike in RMR, or are we seeing it level out?’ [The IPI] will help them figure out what to do and the next new thing that they need to look at."

Whether a 10-person alarm shop will regularly consult a macroeconomic index to answer those questions remains an open one; however, MacDowell's argument is that the IPI provides a neutral, industry-wide data layer that hasn't previously existed – one that doesn't carry the fingerprints of a manufacturer sponsor or another participant with a stake in the outcome.

Why Beacon Economics?

The choice of Beacon, a firm with no prior footprint in the security industry, raised an obvious question: why not a research partner with existing industry relationships and context? "If we had contracted with an industry-specific research firm, I think sometimes people may question that data," MacDowell said. "We will know that the data being given to us is going to be legitimate."

He drew a pointed analogy: "Congress has something called GAO, which is an outside agency that reports to Congress and investigates,” he said. “They look at all sorts of data and say, this is what we believe. Similarly, Beacon doesn't do anything in the security alarm industry."

The tradeoff, of course, is context. MacDowell acknowledged that Beacon is working with an ESA committee to develop that industry fluency. "If they may not understand what RMR is, which you do and I do, we let them know," he said. "They're picking it up pretty quickly."

ESA did interview multiple firms before selecting Beacon, and MacDowell noted they were referred by contacts within the industry and has an established track record working with associations, including the California Chamber of Commerce.

Independence and Transparency

One of the more pointed questions surrounding any association-sponsored research is what happens when the findings are inconvenient. MacDowell was unequivocal on this point. "If they find something concerning, I think that's concerning to the industry," he said. "Knowing ESA and knowing the board of directors, I think we would completely be totally upfront and say ‘this is what we found.’"

He also committed to transparency around methodology. "Extremely transparent — we've made that very, very clear," he said, noting that Beacon's own reputational stake reinforces that commitment.

Who Gets Access, What It Costs, and What Success Looks Like

The IPI will be free to ESA members, and non-members will pay for access, which MacDowell framed as a straightforward membership value proposition. ESA has also indicated it will share portions of the research with media.

Asked how ESA will measure the initiative's value in the coming year, MacDowell was candid that specific benchmarks haven't been established. "I wouldn't say a year…I'd say the next 18 months," he said. "I think it's going to take a while for people to understand really what it is, and then go, holy moly, we needed this for years."

His broader definition of success: "We just want to make sure that we are the one place where people can go for good intelligence on the industry that they can use to help run and grow their business."