The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally changed the daily lives of nearly everyone on the planet. But while many in the U.S. and other parts of the world would like to get back to business as usual to help give the global economy the shot in the arm it so desperately needs, it has become clear that the ramifications of the disease are going to be felt for years to come and that security professionals are going to face myriad challenges as they deal with the ensuing fallout from the lockdowns and recovery efforts undertaken by public and private institutions.
Juan Manuel Santos, who served as the president of Colombia from 2010-2018, delivered a sobering keynote address during GSX+ on Monday, laying out both the economic and security consequences of the pandemic and why people must rely on history and past experiences to navigate the uncharted waters ahead.
“There is no precedent to what we are going through. To begin with, this is not a supply crisis nor a demand crisis – it is a supply and demand crisis at the same,” he told conference attendees during the virtual keynote. “That’s why the economic and social effects have been so devastating and why the traditional tools of monetary and fiscal policies used to address this situation have had only a limited impact.”
In fact, Santos emphasized that this is why the world is not currently suffering through a recession like in 2008 that was limited in scope and featured mitigating factors, such as double-digit GDP growth in China and rising commodity prices, but rather that COVID-19 is inflicting a “depression” upon the globe. “The costs and consequences will be very, very bad for a long time and they will not be shared equally,” he said. “Inequality between countries and within countries will be gravely exacerbated.”
For example, Santos explained that while the U.S. has the Federal Reserve and the EU has the European Central Bank that can do essentially whatever it takes to counteract the lingering impacts of the pandemic, developing and poorer countries do not have the same luxury. As a result, the gap between the developed world and everyone else will grow exponentially which will have a detrimental impact on global security.
“It is a fact, already proven, that the pandemic – it’s economic and social consequences – is affecting much more poorer and more vulnerable segments of all societies,” he said. “The tremendous progress in the fight against poverty during the last decade is being rapidly wiped out.”
A Return to Normalcy?
According to Santos, the key question on the mind of everyone these days is how long will it take for things to get back to where they were before COVID-19 hit? Using history as a barometer, Santos said that on average, the time it took from the world’s worst economic crises since the 19th century to reach the same level of per capita GDP as before was eight years.
“The recovery is not and will not be uniform. The richer the country, the faster the recovery,” he said. “But as I said before – beware. Don’t take these experiences as a reliable predictor. This crisis is different, and much will depend on how and when we can declare victory in battel against COVID-19 and in order to declare victory, remember also, that nobody is safe until everyone is safe.”
How things shake economically, of course, will have a significant impact on security.
Conflicts Continue During Pandemic
When natural disasters occur, Santos said they can sometimes have a positive effect in relieving conflict as opposing sides lay down their arms to help those affected. However, during COVID, with a few exceptions, that has not been the case.
“The secretary general of the UN called for a ceasefire in all armed conflicts during the pandemic to no avail,” Santos explained. “And unfortunately, more misery will create more tensions throughout the world.”
Additionally, Santos said economic strain also gives rise to and helps fuel extreme political factions – typically defined by populist and nationalist ideologies - which can further break down global security.
“The multi-lateral system that was built to promote and preserve peace is under attack, ironically, by the same countries that led its design and construction,” he said. “This trend will increase the possibility of more conflict among nations and within nations. The law of jungle doesn’t make our planet safer.”
When lockdowns are over in certain countries, Santos expects demonstrations that were prevalent before at the end of 2019 in places like France, Iran and Hong Kong will see added strength and crowd numbers.
“Increasing anger with the response of many governments to the disease will no doubt add to the frustration and protests. All of this means that preserving public order will be a major challenge,” he said.
Despite all of these factors that may lead many to have a pessimistic outlook on the future, Santos encouraged all of those listening to his keynote not to lose hope.
“Never lose hope because it is the light that illuminates the path to a better future. Never succumb to fear because fear is the mother of all negative and destructive sentiments. And never forget that in times of difficulties and uncertainties like the ones we are living, we must find guidance in our values and principles; they will show us the way,” he said.
Joel Griffin is the Editor-in-Chief of SecurityInfoWatch.com and a veteran security journalist. You can reach him at [email protected].
